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Is Pakistan favorite for ICC Champions Trophy 2025?

Pakistan has recently won three consecutive bilateral series in 2024 and is currently on a five-match winning streak in the ODI format

Is Pakistan favorite for ICC Champions Trophy 2025? PHOTO: AFP

As the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 approaches, fans have high hopes and strong belief in the Pakistan team. They are aiming to defend their Champions Trophy title, which they won in 2017. Being the host nation and ranked number 3 in the ODI rankings, Pakistan is considered one of the favorites for the mega event. They have recently won three consecutive bilateral series in 2024 and are currently on a five-match winning streak in the ODI format. Pakistan recently whitewashed South Africa, and won 2-1 against Zimbabwe and Australia, on their home turf.

Fans have high expectations from Pakistan under the leadership of Mohammad Rizwan. However, let’s not forget that the last time Pakistan was the number 1 ranked side going into an ICC event, they were favorites. Before the 2023 Asia Cup, Pakistan were seen as strong contenders, but they ended their campaign in 4th place after a crushing 228-run defeat to India. Similarly, going into the 2023 ODI World Cup, Pakistan were one of the favorites, especially with conditions in India similar to those in Pakistan. However, Pakistan finished their campaign in 5th place, just above Afghanistan, after winning only 4 out of 9 matches—against Netherlands, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and New Zealand by DLS method. Pakistan were knocked out in the first round. They were also defeated by Afghanistan for the first time in ODI cricket.

Now, with the Champions Trophy scheduled in Pakistan, fans are once again full of hope. Looking at the teams in Pakistan’s group, apart from India, Pakistan has a strong record against New Zealand and Bangladesh in ICC events, whom they will face in the first round of tournament.

Pakistan has not lost to New Zealand in an ICC event in the last nine years. Their last defeat to New Zealand in an ICC event was in the 2016 T20 World Cup. Since then, Pakistan has defeated New Zealand in the 2019 World Cup, where Babar Azam scored a century and Shaheen Shah Afridi claimed three quick wickets. The two sides also met in the 2021 T20 World Cup, where Asif Ali’s late strikes led Pakistan to victory. They then clashed again in the 2022 T20 World Cup semi-final, where Shaheen's early breakthrough and fifties from Rizwan and Babar helped Pakistan reach the final. In the 2023 ODI World Cup, Pakistan won by 21 runs (DLS method) chasing a massive total of 402 runs, with Fakhar Zaman's sensational knock of 126* off 81 deliveries.

As for Bangladesh, the Tigers last defeated Pakistan in an ICC event in the 1999 ODI World Cup. Their last ODI win against Pakistan came in the 2018 Asia Cup, when they beat Pakistan in a virtual semi-final before facing India in the final.

As Pakistan has a great record against New Zealand and Bangladesh in ICC events, let's not forget the upsets that cost Pakistan their place in recent ICC events. Pakistan was defeated by Zimbabwe in the 2022 World Cup but managed to reach the final of the event. Pakistan was defeated by Afghanistan in the 2023 ODI World Cup and by the USA in the 2024 World Cup, which led to their elimination in those respective events.

Pakistan and India last faced off in ODI's in 2023 World Cup and Asia Cup, where India comfortably defeated Pakistan both times. The teams also clashed in the 2019 World Cup, with India emerging victorious. Pakistan has not won an ODI against India since the 2017 Champions Trophy final. Since then, India has defeated Pakistan in the 2018 Asia Cup (twice), the 2019 ODI World Cup, the 2023 Asia Cup, and 2023 ODI World Cup. There was a draw in a group stage game of the 2023 Asia Cup due to rain.

The expectations are high for Pakistan team, but they need to assess their team combination carefully going into the ICC event. They also need to handle pressure in the knockouts, unlike in the 2021 T20 World Cup semi-final and the 2022 T20 World Cup final.

In the last two ODI series, Pakistan’s fast bowlers benefited from helpful conditions, especially in Australia, but that will not be the case in Pakistan and the UAE due to the batting-friendly pitches. Pakistan's batters will need to perform well. Looking at the current scenerio, Pakistan is likely to include Fakhar Zaman in place of the out-of-form opener Abdullah Shafique. However, with Saim Ayub’s injury, Pakistan is focusing on different combinations. Imam-ul-Haq may be included in place of Saim, or Rizwan could open with Fakhar, with Saud Shakeel included in the middle order. The top five will likely consist of Fakhar, Imam/Shakeel, Babar, Rizwan, and Kamran Ghulam/Tayyab Tahir.

At number 7, Khushdil Shah is likely to be included as Pakistan's fifth bowling option with all rounder Salman Ali Agha, who will also be a part of the team at number 6. 

In the bowling department, Shaheen Afridi, Naseem Shah, Haris Rauf, Mohammad Hasnain, or Mohammad Wasim Jr would form a strong bowling attack. Abrar Ahmed or Sufiyan Muqeem may play as spinners. 

With this combination, Pakistan would have all departments covered. If they play to their full potential, they could meet the high expectations of their fans and can be able to successfully defend their Champions Trophy title in 2025.