Can Pakistan still qualify for ICC Champions Trophy 2025 semi-finals?

Pakistan’s chances of reaching the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 semifinals have taken a massive hit after losing their first two group matches. The defending champions first suffered a 60-run defeat against New Zealand in Karachi, which also hurt their net run rate. Then, on Sunday in Dubai, they lost to arch-rivals India, leaving them at the bottom of the Group A standings with zero points and just one game remaining.  

Despite the poor start, Pakistan is not officially out of the tournament yet. However, their qualification now depends on favorable results from other teams.  

How Can Pakistan Still Qualify?  

For Pakistan to reach the semifinals, they need two key results to go their way. First, Bangladesh and India must defeat New Zealand in their upcoming matches. If that happens, New Zealand will finish the group stage with two points.

Pakistan will then have to win their final match against Bangladesh by a big margin. This would ensure that Pakistan, Bangladesh, and New Zealand all end up with two points each. In this case, the team with the best net run rate will qualify for the semifinals alongside India.  

What If New Zealand Wins Another Match?  

If New Zealand wins either of their remaining games—against Bangladesh or India—it will eliminate Pakistan from the tournament, regardless of how they perform in their final match.  

New Zealand’s next game is against Bangladesh in Rawalpindi on Monday. If the Kiwis win, Pakistan’s hopes of defending their Champions Trophy title will officially be over before they even take the field for their last group match.