India’s WTC Final hopes rest on Sydney win

South Africa's thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan in Centurion has secured their spot in the World Test Championship (WTC) final this June. Meanwhile, Australia's victory at the MCG has made them the front-runners for the second spot in the final, though India and Sri Lanka still have a chance. Here's what each team in contention needs to do to qualify.  

Australia:

Current Percentage: 61.46%  
Matches Remaining: 1 home Test against India, 2 away Tests against Sri Lanka  

Australia is in a strong position. A win in the upcoming Sydney Test against India would guarantee their place in the WTC final, no matter how their series in Sri Lanka goes. If Australia wins in Sydney but loses both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would finish with 57.02 percentage points, ahead of India's 50 and Sri Lanka's 53.85.  

A draw in Sydney would keep Australia ahead of India but open the door for Sri Lanka to qualify. If Australia draws in Sydney and loses both Tests in Sri Lanka, they would end up with 53.51 percentage points, while Sri Lanka could climb to 53.85.  

If Australia loses in Sydney, they would need to win at least one Test in Sri Lanka to secure their place in the final. A 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka, following a loss in Sydney, would leave Australia with 57.02 percentage points, ahead of India's 55.26.  

India:

Current Percentage: 52.78%  
Matches Remaining: 1 away Test against Australia  

India’s chances of qualifying hinge on a win in Sydney. A victory would boost their percentage to 55.26, enough to finish second if Australia draws no more than one Test in Sri Lanka. In this scenario, Australia would drop to 53.51, and Sri Lanka would finish with 48.72, assuming they win 1-0.  

However, if India draws in Sydney, their percentage would drop to 51.75, eliminating them from contention for the WTC final. Even if Australia loses both Tests in Sri Lanka, a draw in Sydney would not be enough to keep India in the race.  

Sri Lanka:

Current Percentage: 45.45%  
Matches Remaining: 2 home Tests against Australia  

Sri Lanka’s path to qualification is narrow. For them to have a chance, the Sydney Test must end in a draw, followed by a 2-0 series win over Australia. This would give Sri Lanka a percentage of 53.85, pushing them ahead of Australia (53.51) and India (51.75).  

If India wins in Sydney, Sri Lanka will be eliminated from contention. Similarly, if Australia wins their series in Sri Lanka, they will finish ahead of Sri Lanka, regardless of the outcome of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy.