WTC final scenarios: Can Sri Lanka still make it?

Sri Lanka’s hopes of reaching the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) final took a big hit after a 2-0 series defeat against South Africa. While the setback significantly reduced their chances, all hope is not lost for the Sri Lankan side.  

The team travelled to South Africa aiming to secure a spot in the WTC final for the 2023-25 cycle. However, their campaign started poorly with a heavy defeat in the first Test in Durban. Despite putting up a stronger fight in the second Test in Gqeberha, Sri Lanka lost by 109 runs.  

The series win catapulted South Africa to the top of the WTC points table, making them strong contenders for the final. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, dropped to fourth place but still has a slim chance to qualify. They have two crucial Tests remaining against Australia at home next year.  

For Sri Lanka to stay in contention, they must secure a 2-0 series win over Australia, which would increase their points percentage (PCT) to 53.85. A 1-0 victory would only take their PCT to 48.72, which won’t be enough. Sri Lanka also needs favorable results from other teams’ matches to keep their hopes alive.  

South Africa has two Tests left in their current cycle, both at home against Pakistan. If South Africa manages to draw or win even one of those matches, they will achieve a PCT of 55.56, securing their place in the final. However, if Pakistan sweeps the series 2-0, South Africa’s PCT will drop to 52.78, giving Sri Lanka a better chance.  

The outcomes of the ongoing India-Australia series could also impact Sri Lanka’s qualification. For instance:  
- If Australia loses the series 2-3 and Sri Lanka wins 2-0, Australia’s PCT would drop to 50.00.  
- Similarly, if India loses 2-3, their PCT would fall to 53.51, keeping Sri Lanka in the race with a 2-0 win over Australia.  

If South Africa defeats Pakistan, Sri Lanka’s only realistic chance would depend on the India-Australia series ending in a 1-1 draw. In this case, India’s PCT would finish at 53.51, while Australia’s would be 50.00, leaving room for Sri Lanka to edge past with a clean sweep against Australia.  

Sri Lanka’s best scenario would be for Pakistan to secure a 2-0 win over South Africa. This result, combined with Sri Lanka winning 2-0 against Australia, would almost guarantee their place in the final.  

While the path to the WTC final is challenging for Sri Lanka, a clean sweep against Australia and favorable results in other matches could keep their dream alive.