Two defeats by the narrowest of margins have left Pakistan on the brink at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022, but not yet totally out of the picture regarding qualification for the semi-finals.
“To be honest, it's hard (to qualify now),” admitted captain Babar Azam after the loss to Zimbabwe earlier in the Super 12 stage.
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But Pakistan still has a glimmer of hope of reaching the knockout stage. First, they simply must beat South Africa on Thursday. And if they do, they will still have a chance going into the final round of matches, with Pakistan then needing Netherlands, Zimbabwe, or the weather to do them a favor.
Babar and his side can now reach a maximum of six points. So if they beat South Africa, then essentially, the situation will be this:
One of India and South Africa must drop points in their final games to give Pakistan a chance.
A loss for either side - or a no result for South Africa - would allow Pakistan to snatch a top-two spot with a win over Bangladesh.
Pakistan could overtake India on net run rate or finish higher than South Africa - courtesy of having more wins - should rain interfere and cause the Protea's match against the Netherlands to be abandoned.
So qualification for the semi-finals is not mathematically impossible, but things need to fall in Pakistan’s favor.
Can they hold up their end of the equation, at least? Here’s what awaits in their final two matches…
Potentially the decisive game in Pakistan’s unlikely revival sees the SCG host a massive Group 2 fixture. South Africa are ranked third in the world at the time of writing and possesses a fiery bowling attack and powerful batting unit. But Pakistan’s record against the Proteas in recent times is good, with six wins in the last eight T20I meetings.
If Pakistan is still alive on the final matchday, they will fancy their chances against Bangladesh. The recent T20I record in this fixture is heavily in Pakistan’s favor, with eight straight wins (and one abandoned game) since the Tigers last won in March 2016.
Thursday 03 November: Pakistan v South Africa, SCG, Sydney
Sunday 06 November: South Africa v Netherlands, Adelaide Oval
Sunday 06 November: Pakistan v Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval
Sunday 06 November: Zimbabwe v India, MCG, Melbourne