Explainer: Pakistan T20 World Cup semifinal qualification scenarios

Pakistan needs to win all their remaining matches to set up a proper net run rate to qualify for the semi-finals

Explainer: Pakistan T20 World Cup semifinal qualification scenarios PHOTO: AFP

The unexpected win by Zimbabwe over Pakistan in the ICC T20 World Cup 2022 on Thursday has made Group 2 interesting for all the teams, but Pakistan's chances of moving on in the tournament are now up in the air.

After two games, Pakistan is in fifth place because they lost to India and Zimbabwe. On the other hand, India, South Africa, Bangladesh, and Zimbabwe are ahead of Pakistan.

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India has four points after two games, while both South Africa and Zimbabwe have three points after two games. Bangladesh is good for two points.

Pakistan's next game in the tournament is against the Netherlands. After that, they play South Africa and Bangladesh. All three of these games are now must-win for Pakistan. Pakistan will not make it to the semifinals if they lose one more game.

But it won't be enough for Babar Azam's team just to win three games in a row. They'll also need help from other teams.

Now, Pakistan's best-case scenario is for Bangladesh to beat Zimbabwe, India to beat South Africa, and Pakistan to beat the Netherlands on Sunday. India will be in first place with six points, followed by Bangladesh with four, Zimbabwe with three, and Pakistan with two points.

Then, on November 2, it will be necessary for Pakistan for the Netherlands to beat Zimbabwe and India to beat Bangladesh. On November 3, Pakistan will need to beat South Africa in Sydney.

In this case, India will have 8 points, Pakistan and Bangladesh will each have 4 points, and South Africa and Zimbabwe will each have 3 points.

On November 6, all of the teams in the group will play. Pakistan should beat Bangladesh and hope India beats Zimbabwe and South Africa beats the Netherlands.

If wishes were horses and everything went according to Pakistan's equation, India would be in first place with 10 points, Pakistan would be in second place with 6 points, and South Africa would be in third place with 5 points.

But Pakistan will be in trouble if South Africa beats India on Sunday. If South Africa beats India, SA will have five points, and India will have four. South Africa will play the Netherlands and is likely to win. India will play Zimbabwe and Bangladesh and will likely win both games.

So, if South Africa beats India, Pakistan will have to hope that the Netherlands beats South Africa and Zimbabwe beats India to improve their NRR.

Pakistan's situation is likely to become clear by Sunday evening. So, let's keep Pakistan's hopes alive by hoping India keeps winning and beats South Africa easily.