Pakistan’s semi-final qualification scenario after win over New Zealand

Pakistan has rejuvenated its prospects in the ICC World Cup 2023 by securing a crucial 21-run victory over New Zealand through the DLS method in Bengaluru on Saturday.

In light of this triumph, Pakistan's path to the semi-finals hinges on a carefully crafted scenario.

For Pakistan to secure a spot in the semi-finals, they must first overcome England in their last group stage match. Simultaneously, they are relying on Sri Lanka to defeat New Zealand and for Afghanistan to either lose both or at least one of their remaining two matches against Australia and South Africa. Furthermore, Pakistan hopes that Afghanistan's net run rate (NRR) remains inferior to theirs.

In the event that New Zealand prevails against Sri Lanka in their encounter on November 9, a specific margin of victory becomes crucial for Pakistan. In this scenario, assuming New Zealand edges out Sri Lanka by just one run, Pakistan would need to defeat England by approximately 130 runs.

Pakistan’s best scenario to qualify for the semis is:

Pakistan beat England
Sri Lanka beat New Zealand
AFG lose one game & their NRR stay low

If it's a tie on NRR with NZ

Pakistan will need to beat England by approx. 130 runs (that's assuming NZ beat SL by 1 run).

— Mazher Arshad (@MazherArshad) November 4, 2023

A positive aspect for Pakistan is the scheduling of their match against England on November 11, which provides them with the advantage of knowing the exact margin of victory required for qualification.